The A-Z Guide to Soccer Betting (Updated 2021)
Hello! Welcome to our comprehensive guide to Soccer Betting. In this guide we have condensed all the information you might need to bet on soccer. How to analyse games, what to look at and what to NOT look at, what are the more prone leagues for each type of bet and how to manage your bankroll. And it’s all free in front of your eyes. Excited? Let’s get into it.
Oh, and if you would like for us to help you with games every week, we send every Thursday, Friday and Saturday a list of 10 Games for our 10to15k System and we have a FREE WEEK promo on…
WHAT IS SOCCER (FOOTBALL)?
I would say that, since you are researching Soccer (term used in the USA… everywhere else it’s Football) you probably know the ins and outs of it, we will still skim through the general idea. It is a team sport where 11 players from each side, 10 outfield players and a goalkeeper play with the goal to put the ball in the opponent’s net. For an in-depth explanation check the video below.
BETTING ON SOCCER
When people think about soccer betting they think of the classic 1×2 bet. This Means that you put on money on either the home (1) or away (2) team will win or the match will end in a draw. The problem with this system is that, even before considering any teams for your ticket, your chance of winning is situated at 33.3% meaning there’s a 66.6% chance that your bet will lose. This can be avoided by betting on other types of betting such as Both Teams to Score, Under/over (Goals,Corners,Cards etc) where your chances go up to 50% (this before facting in the teams playing). In this guide we will cover most betting alternatives, which are the best ones and how to find suitable teams for each of them.
Our preferred bookie is Bet365 as they have the best odds usually and, as well, offer the Bet Builder, where you can combine different bets on one single game (really handy for the 10to15k system as the max amount of BetBuilder selections on an accumulator is 4) meaning if you’re not sure about that Both teams to Score you can combine Over 1.5 Goals with some Corners (it;s good to do check the stats before, as usual)
Another big mistake punters make is to bet on a favourite regardless of the competition. And this is very important. One of the biggest tip we can actually start with is the following: ONLY BET ON LEAGUE MATCHES. Now… for any team there are a number of competition they can compete in during a season: Friendly Matches, League Matches, Cups, International Cups.
Friendlies are games played before the season starts or when there’s a break in the schedule throughout a year, and our main piece of advice is: AVOID AT ALL COSTS. These games are made so that the teams can try out new systems, new players and have literally NO STAKE which means player will NOT play at their fullest. They are good matches to watch when you’re bored or to check on your favourite team before a season.
B) LEAGUES MATCHES
As said above, league matches is where all your homework should stay. Here is where most teams focus their attention on. When researching games take into consideration the following: How the teams play home and away respectively, how they have been playing in the past 5-10 games, how the last games between the 2 have finished (some teams just score like hell when they play one another) and where they are on the standings (teams that need points will play more aggresively).
C) DOMESTIC & CLUB LEVEL CUPS
Just like friendlies, we do not recommend betting on cups. The main reason behind this is that teams treat cups in a very different way than league games. Often good teams will put the B-team against supposedly weaker opponents. This means that you are in fact betting on a much weaker team than normal. Also, it is much less accurate trying to find a team’s form against its opponent, especially for competition such as the Champions League and similar. The best example is a team such as Salzburg. In the league they are easily the best team around… however when playing in European Cups they are average at best (while they DO get good games, they are not a constantly reliable source). Remember: a team’s mentality is different in a cup games compared to a league game.
D) INTERNATIONAL CUPS
Here we have countries playing their national teams against each other. Plain and simple, avoid. Players will go for the international game coming from their respective clubs, meaning all of a sudden they will have to change their play style to fit the manager and play with different teammates than usual.It’s good for fun, however vastly inconsistent in terms of decent odds.
When we start to analyse a match it is very important to not put too much emphasis on the odds. Odds don’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Of course, one team might be a clear favourite (Germany playing Lichtenstein at home), but how the bookies make the odds are through nothing more than complicated maths (league position, h2h history etc) and algorithms. Your job, as a punter, is too find what is called VALUE BETS (bets where the odds are higher than the supposed possibility of outcome). The easiest place to find value bets is on the following markets: Both Teams to Score, Under/Over Corners, Draw No Bet, Result/Both Teams to Score, Over/Under Goals.
Also, keep in mind that there are a number of factors that affect how a team is going to play, and some are completely our of our control:
- Weather: a games where it rains cats and dogs or there’s a full on snow blizzard might turn all odds on their heads. With snow especially it seems that anything can happen and we can see goal after goal after goal and mistake after mistake from very good players.
- Unavailable Players: It is very important to keep in mind the fact that, if your star player is out on an injury (or has Covid), you might not play as well, even the team’s morale might be a lot lower without the “Captain” on the field. It is advisable to check before games if they have many injured or sick players as, if that’s the case, you might be better off betting on the underdog.
- Fans: Morale is important and with the Covid19 pandemic (the site launched April 15th 2021, so we kinda’ still are in a full blown pandemic at the time of writing this), meaning no crowds allowed, even cutthroat games with extremely high stakes look like friendly matches. This can impact the players as, many times, it is the crowd that can push the team forward for that elusive goals. We have noticed in our analysis of hundreds of games that, in some cases, where teams would have been pushed and probably would have score (based on previous encounters), they only played as if the game was already lost, without a drop of life in them. (PSG losing to AS Monaco 0-2).
- Stake: While more evident in the last legs of a season, sometimes when the team doesn’t have anything to gain from a game, they might just treat it as friendly and play more laid back. In order to avoid this it is good to bet on matches that have a stake.
- Form: The form is, straightforwards, how the team has been playing recently, and it is by far one of the best sources to find great odds. This is, to put it simply, because most bookies tend to see standing and team strength more as per the whole season than just take into account a few games. Check how the teams have been performing in the past 10 games (5 home and 5 away) as you might see that one of them is on a strong home winning streak for the past few, while the other has been conceding at least 1 in every of their away games, so, even if the away team is considered the favourite one, the bet might be very strong candidate, for Double Change or Draw No Bet for the Home Team or even a Both teams to Score. (below in the gallery we have just one example between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund).
- Stack of games: It is well noted that some games play up to 3 matches (including travel)
In the gallery below we have an example from Flashscores.com (our recommended stats site) of the derby between Real Madrid and Barcelona. Our precition (as of Thursday, April 9th, is the following
As we said in the beginning of the guide, the main type that comes to mind is the 1×2 or win/draw/win. However, this type of bet gives a big disadvantage in case the team concedes 1 or even 2 goals in the beginning. All of a sudden you are chasing a score. As well, there is the possibility that a favourite might concede a goal in the very last minutes. Below we have some examples of a favourite losing and 1 of one being equalised in the last minutes.
However, if you still want to go ahead, here are the general guidelines to try to follow: Mostly try to play teams at home. Find teams that play bad away and play against them, find teams that need wins against teams that are comfortable around mid-table (especially towards the end of a season), go more on a team’s form than on general season standings.
B) Double Chance & Draw No Win
The double chance or Draw no Win betting markets might seem to give a slight edge to the bettor as your margin goes from 33% to 66%. However, don’t let that fool you. Once your team goes 0-2 down you need 2 goals to even “get back into it” on very low odds or even not win anything. The market works like this: on Double Chance you win if your team wins or draws. Draw no bet voids the selection in case of a draw. The only market we recommend is Draw no Bet on 1×2 Win odds of 2.0+ (If a team has a 2.0 odds for a win, the Draw no Bet will usually stand on around 1.50). Double chance offers far too low odds (1.20, 1.14, 1.10) which you can get with bets such as Over 0 Goals For 1 of the teams involved (a 1×2 win odd of 2.0 gives you normally 1.25 on Over 0.5 Goals, which means all you care is for the team to score a goal… no result, no corners, no nothing). One aspect to keep n mind is that the Draw No Win cannot be used on a combined betting selection (where you select more markets for the same game) whereas Double chance can be combined with Goals, cards, corners etc.
What to look for: Top of the league against bottom league at odds of 2.0 for a normal Win (or mid/bootom league playing the very bottom). Gives you a healthy 1.50ish (perfect for the 10to15k system), and in the case of a draw… well it ain’t a loss on your betslip. Germany’s Second and Third Bundesliga are the best for these games. Also Italy’s Serie B and the Nordic Leagues (Norway, Sweden, Finland etc) Normally better odds on favourite teams playing away.
C) BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – YES/NO
One of our preferred bets. You bet wether the 2 teams will score in the same match or not. If you say yes any score from 1-1 upwards gives you a win. The great thing about this selection is that it can make you a winner with 10 minutes of play. Once the two teams score you basically don’t care about the game anymore, and also it’s the type of game that can go until the last minute, and even if the team leading score another goal, you might just get one in the last few seconds (which happens way more often than thought). We recommend almost exclusively going for the BTTS YES option. A wrong moment for the favourite and the underdog can get a penalty and there goes your ticket.
What to look for: Good teams playing mediocre teams away. Teams with bad defense (or relegation area teams) playing against each other. Avoid derbies. Always check the home/away record and form. Good leagues: German Bundesliga (First 3 Leagues), Netherlands (First 2 Leagues), Belgium (1 and 2), Switzerland (Challenge League),
D) Over/Under Corners
Another of the bets you will see in our tips. Although this season (2020/2021) it has been fairly inconsistent is the corners bet. The bet is simple. more or less than X.5 amount of corners in a game (on over 9.5, 10 corners wins, 9 lose). The world average of corners is around 8-9. We recommend going on the OVER market as a team can literally get 3-4 corners in the last minutes of the game.
What to look for: Usually, good corners sources is good team playing bad team and not scoring. The better the teams playing each other the less chance of corners there will be. Avoid derbies. For corners the best way to find teams is to do research HERE. Look for teams with an average of 4.5+ both on for and against. Normally for good odds with quite likely outcome take the flat number of corners and pick 2 below (if the match has a plus/minus 9.5 corners, bet OVER 7.5 ).
E) Over/Under Cards
Betting on cards is a little bit trickier as you not only need to research the teams, but you need to research the referees as well., as some give more cards than others. As per usual, we recommend going on the over market, as a couple of heated moments can bring up a few cards in minutes. The market acts exactly just like corners (for example over/under 5.5 cards). Also, some bookmakers list them as booking points. Yellow cards count as 1 card, red cards count as 2 cards (if you get a straight red counts as 2, but if you get a second yellow… which then brings a red, only counts as 1 for the yellow). Booking points count 10 for a yellow and 20 for a red usually, however check if your preferred bookmaker to see how they offer them.
What to look for: Leagues with a high card count such as Germany’s Bundesliga’s or Spain’s La Liga. Derbies tend to bring a higher number of cards as if there’s a bigger rivalry between the teams, the players will usually tend to play more aggressively.
F) Over/Under Goals
A similar market to the Both teams to Score (BTTS for short) you bet on the number of goals. Either under or over a certain X.5 number. The standard Over/Under cap is at 2.5 goals (3 goals or more wins, 2 or less loses) as the general average on goals in a football game is around 2 – 3. However, there is the possibility of going up or down the ladder with odds increasing or decreasing accordingly.
What to look for: The leagues with many goals are the ones that coincide with high BTTS results (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Switzerland 1 and 2, Belgium 1 and 2, Germany 1, 2 and 3, Italy 1 etc). It is a market that can be used instead of BTTS when you are not that sure on wether or not both teams will score and there is a clear favourite.
G) Asian Handicap
Handicap betting is when you try to give get better odds by giving a handicap to one of the teams. If you have a clear favourite at odds of 1.20, in handicap betting on your betting slip your team could start the game trailing virtually by 0-2. This means the bet only comes out a winner if the team wins by 3 or more goals. This however improves your odds from 1.20 to 2.00+. Below we have put a table that explains all the different handicaps and how they affect your selection. However it’s quite a risky type of bet that doesn’t yield too many profits in the long run as it can be very inconsistent, but can bring good results on the odd ticket.
What to look out for: The best bet is teams going very well at fairly even odds (1.70 – 2.00) playing at home against teams that are going quite badly and usually go for the -1.5 variant. This will give you odds of 2.5 or more. Combine 3 selections on an accumulator to turn 10 into 100+. We sometimes give such tips for free on our Telegram channel.
H) Result/Both teams to Score
If you are looking for big odds, this is the market to choose. You bet on who will win (or draw, of course) and if both teams will score or not. Most games have odds starting at 3.0+ and selection on the underdog to win and btts can get odds of upwards of 12. We recommend betting on slight favourites playing home or strong favourites playing away. The idea is that at any time there can be a late goal by the team going behind, and that, when teams go 2-0 up tend to play more freely (why there is a saying that 2-0 is the most dangerous score, as you relax and the opponent can score more easily). The great secret of this type of bet where you have the option to cash out is that, if you make an accumulator of 5-6 selections that play at the same time, if all games start well you can take out a few hundreds from only 10 within half an hour or less.
What to look out for: Leagues with clear favourites and many goals (Belgium, Nederlands, Switzerland etc). Also you can make an accumulator from the lower English/Scottish leagues as 90% of the games play at the same time, so you can cash out a nice lump sum of money (or let it play through as an accumulator of 6 games from these leagues give a potential win of 80-90k from only 10).
I) Corect Score
The correct score is a very hard prediction to get and we do not recommend it at all, as any moment your perfect golden score can get smashed into eternity by a mistake. The bet consists on predicting the exact score of a game. The upside is, that if you get it right, the odds are probably astronomical.
What to look for: teams that normally have the same score between them, or conservative teams that park the bus after going 1-0 up.
J) Half-Time Betting
Most of the markets above work for half-time betting. However, half-time betting is a double edged sword as statistics go south at half time. We only recommend this market if you want to go for higher odds and higher risk but, as a general rule of thumb, teams tend to get more corners, cards and goals in the second half of a game compared to the first half as the game goes into what’s called a “time of urgency” when you’re 1-0 down and there’s 10-15 minutes left, so you will take more risks which can mean you might equalise or concede, get a lot of corners in or a lot of cards might be shown due to the high intensity (players under pressure etc)
K) Other Markets
There are lots of other markets you can bet on such as who will score, how many goals/corners/cards would be in a specific timeframe, if there will be Penalties and if the teams will score or miss them, if there will be an own goal etc. Our main advice for all of these are: do you have some spare money you don’t mind at all losing? Then go ahead. Otherwise steer clear.